Poker Insights: Decision Science and Neuroscience
Luck is Probability Taken Personally
I wanted to travel the world, and it happened—despite poor planning and magical thinking. Believing in luck can influence results. Magical thinking is real—sometimes beginner’s luck happens because players don’t overthink probabilities.
“What you believe is real, will be real to you in its consequences.”
Teachable moment: You’re one year away with focus from people just calling you lucky. 🎲 Win or lose—it’s just variance. Master randomness, manage emotion, bluff like strategy. Fake it ‘til you make it—the right way: Scaffold your hustle, grow outside your comfort zone. ♠️🔥
🔢 Probability is a lens not a verdict
Probability, in a mathematical sense, is the measure of the likelihood of an event occurring. It is objective and independent of the individual. “Decisions are bets on the future, and emotions are predictions based on the past. We manufacture both.”
🌀 The Personalization of Luck
Luck is often viewed from a personal perspective. You might win or lose a hand and feel lucky or unlucky, but both outcomes are just probability in motion.
😣 Emotional Response to Random Events
Our emotional reactions—joy at winning, anger at losing—can mislead us into personalizing objective randomness. “Don’t results-proof your logic. Decision-making is about odds, not outcomes.”
🧠 Cognitive Biases
The illusion of control and confirmation bias skew our perception of random events and reinforce unhealthy mental habits.
🍀 Luck and Superstition
Superstitions are born from the belief we can influence probability through ritual, when in reality, chance is indifferent to our actions. 🍀 The cards have no memory. Poker doesn't think. 😏
🧭 Life and Luck
Success is often credited to effort, failure to luck. Understanding probability helps shift focus from blame to reflection. It teaches us that outcomes are echoes of uncertainty—not verdicts on our worth.
🎲 How We Rewrite Randomness
Accepting randomness helps build resilience. Make better choices, manage emotions, and realize outcomes aren’t always about effort. Biases like confirmation, hindsight, and outcome bias distort our perception, weaving comforting narratives out of chance while masking uncertainty.